Changing the analytical model for EP-elections analysis

My study aimed to explore how the current analytical approach regarding the second-order elections theory and the EP-elections analysis can be changed by adding the aspect of political communication. The process was conducted by studying political communication among the electoral manifestos of the national political parties during the EP-elections in Sweden in 2014. The conclusions of this paper are presented in the following order.

1.    It has to be acknowledged is that the current SOE theoretical approach of Reif and Schmitt still maintains a certain amount of scientific legitimacy when EP-elections are analysed. The model can still be applicable with a more limited scope, such as for the study of voting behaviour. This mainly depends on the fact that EP-elections usually have voting turnouts below 50 per cent, brighter prospects for new and smaller parties comparing to the national political arena and the political behaviour during campaigns where the number of MEPs is relevant to the importance of individual bailouts. This part of the original analytical approach is still relevant to a certain degree.

2.    The SOE theory and analytical framework needs to be modified in order to enable a more thorough understanding of the electoral process. The contemporary critique of the SOE theory is providing a clear and obvious reasoning that the current SOE framework can be considered as problematic. The critique shows that the framework is often not responding to reality and outcome of the electoral processes of second-order elections. The demand for modification also includes the fact that the EP has undergone an institutional change meaning that the original “less is at stake” dimension has gradually been replaced by increased prospect of the “EU-dimension” meaning that “more is at stake”. The part of the critique regarding the micro (individual) level is justifiable since it provides more support to the conclusions that a larger part of voters actually vote according to their interest in EU-issues. This includes that the voters can both vote for and against certain issues relevant for EU-level of decision-making.

3.    By comparing the character of the political communication new conclusions could be made and assumptions can be confirmed or disconfirmed. The adding of the political communication aspect as a part of modification of the current analytical model will influence the further development of new theoretical approaches when it comes to the SOE theory. This would also have an effect on the implementation of the methodological nationalism by providing conclusions that the “nationalization bias” of the EP-elections should become excluded from future definitions and analytical approaches. Instead of understanding the EP-elections through the character of national elections or through character of every member state per se it would be possible to get a more thorough understanding of the political communication process at the EU-wide level. It would be a vital part of the updating process for a new analytical approach.

4.    The new scientific development should also lead to new understanding of the EP-elections “hybrid” character where the grade of uniformity regarding the “European/national” status of the elections can be measured by focusing on the political communication. According to the results of this study and the critique of the theory, findings support the hypothesis that the model can be modified. The role of the political communication in the study can directly influence the arguments if the EP-elections in general or in respective EU-member states can be regarded as second-order elections or elections of second-order importance. The analysis of the level of political communication was made in order to provide conclusions if the SOE theory could be confirmed or disconfirmed. This study, limited to electoral manifestos of the main political parties, finds that the political communication in the main policy areas according to the voters was predominantly based on political communication at the EU-level. This means that the results of the study are not confirming the expectations of the SOE theory which is based on that EP-elections being “nationalized” even regarding the political communication.

5.    At the same time, it is important to note that this study was limited to Sweden and based on the specific issues relevant for just that member state. Conclusions from other member states will depend on the outcome and how the arguments and statements, as vital parts of the political communication, were stated as well as to what level of governance they were relating to. The modification of the analytical framework regarding the EP-elections should include more aspects when it comes to political communication. The selection of the arguments and statements was depending on the rational basis being provided by an electoral survey performed by a simple random sample.

The adding of the political communication aspect would make the current model more applicable for the analysis of the future EP-elections. At the same time, this modification should not be regarded as only limited to the studies of the electoral manifestos. The political communication can be studied by using several options. It can include areas as debates on TV and radio, media articles and political commercials. The studies of the political communication can also provide additional understanding of the voting behaviour. For example, this study finds that political communication regarding environmental issues did reflect the voting behaviour where environmental issues were regarded as the most interesting topic for the voters.

The adding of the political communication aspect would improve the model's ability to deal with and include aspects which were not originally included. The EP-elections should be analysed and understood on their own terms and not as national elections. Concerning the lack of the “micro-perspective”, the voters are also voting due to their interests in the EU-level issues and not due to the national-level political communication. The modification of the model, by studying if the political communication can be regarded as EU-level or national-level with combination of the voting behaviour studies regarding the choice and motivation of the voters, could lead to implementation of the micro perspective in the analysis.

Regarding the EP-elections in Sweden this study provides findings that are confirming the earlier opinions about the character of the political communication made in the aftermath of the electoral process. The character of the electoral manifestos in most of the cases is supporting the reasoning that the national political parties view the EP-elections with more interest in order to provide the kind of political communication the voters are expecting or demanding.

By finding similar results in other member states it would indicate a need to modify the SOE approach. First modification could regard the view on the expectation of the theory. Instead of having a starting point that the national-level political communication would dominate the new theoretical approach, it would be more suitable to assume that the EU-level political communication will dominate. The second modification should concern the analytical aspects of the original Reif and Schmitt conclusions. Their analytical model could be modified in order to be more a “de-nationalized” way of analysing the EP-elections proposed down below. 

1. Voting turnout

2. Voting behaviour (motivation, individual bailouts, age, social group etc.)

3. Party performance (including party-groups in European Parliament)

4. Political communication character (media, manifestos, marketing)  

This proposal is based on a need for the importance to include the micro perspective, which goes hand in hand with the character of political communication. However, to provide more supporting conclusions and due to the limitations of this study, there are several proposals regarding which aspects could be examined. For example, similar studies as this one could be performed on the EP-elections in 2014 in other member states. Another possibility is that political communication could be studied in media, especially the articles in the public debate during the elections. The media aspects could also include the analysis of political advertising such as posters and TV-commercials. When it comes to the analyses of the EP-elections, it would be necessary to improve the current analytical approach during the next EP-elections in 2019. This could be done by applying an EU-wide study where political communication could be researched by the relevant aspects and by performing argumentation analysis, discourse (debate) analysis or communication analysis.  

For more information about my work, please download the paper here.